Mispriced: How Horse Racing Markets Work and How to Beat Them

This essential guide by Chris Ness moves beyond instinct in horse racing betting, offering a structured process for identifying and exploiting market inefficiencies. Drawing on interviews with professional winning punters, this book details a framework built on probability and patience, designed to turn correct opinions into profitable outcomes across any global racing market.

• Explores the fundamentals of value betting, addressing why most punters struggle despite reading form and watching markets.
• Covers advanced analysis, including AI-assisted analysis and machine learning models that have shown positive results across eight consecutive seasons.
• Differentiates between a 'system' (which fails) and a 'process' (which teaches how to find exploitable edges).
• Draws on examples from National Hunt and flat racing in Britain and Ireland.
• Applicable framework that can be applied to any racing market worldwide.

This section stands alone and covers the core psychological and probabilistic elements necessary for serious, long-term success:

• Understanding value and probability.
• Why betting edges decay over time.
• Strategies for bet sizing and knowing when to walk away.
• The psychological reality of serious, long-term betting.

This section details the practical application of the process:

• Utilizing spreadsheets for analysis.
• Analyzing going bias.
• Incorporating trainer and jockey statistics.
• Applying a ratings framework.

• Author: Chris Ness
• Binding: Paperback
• Language: English
• Print Length: 187 pages
• Publication Date: April 30, 2026
• Dimensions: 152 x 11 x 229mm (Approx. 6 x 0.43 x 9 inches)
• Item Weight: 345 g
• ISBN-13: 979-8259227187

If you are ready to move beyond instinct and adopt a rigorous, evidence-based process for finding edges in horse racing markets, Mispriced provides the necessary framework for profitable, long-term engagement.